On March 28, 2015, Nigerians would be heading to the polls to choose a
president who would govern them for the next 4 years. Unlike other
countries, Nigeria has a complex political atmosphere .While Buhari and
the All Progressive Congress (APC) may appear to be gaining momentum at
the moment, there are 5 likely reasons why Buhari might loose in the
coming presidential election. These reasons are disused below.
1) The Independence Of INEC Has been Compromised
The
independence of the an electoral body is sacrosanct in conducting
credible elections in any country. In Nigeria however, the independence
INEC has always been called into question. From the tenure of Abel
Guobadia in (2000- 2005) to the tenure of Moris Uwu (between 2005-
2010), and even now that Atahiru Jega is at the helm of affairs, INEC is
only as free as the government permits it to be. Both Abel Guobadia and
Moris Iwu were criticized for overseeing elections that were not any
better than that organized by the National Union of Road Transport
Workers (NURTW). The reason why these men failed in their their duty to
provide free and fair elections is not far fetched. Nigerian politicians
will never permit a free and fair
election. And from the dramatic way in which the
February 14 poll was shifted it, appears President Jonathan might not
be ready to permit credible elections on March 28.
2) Christian Vs Muslim Ideology
Nigeria
is one of the most religiously divided countries in the world and the
strong influence religion has would also come to bear on March 28. This
may work against Buhari at the polls. The misconceptions about Buhari
that he is a jihadist waiting to Islamize Nigeria may be his undoing at
the polls. Nigerians are known to push religious sentiment above other
important issues.
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3) The Nigerian Army Is now A Political Party
Gone
are the gallant days of the Nigerian Army . In recent times the
Nigerian Army has become a shadow of itself. In other countries, the
military separates itself from politics and never blurs that line.
During the Arab spring in 2011, the military in several Arab countries
who had sit –in-tight dictators lived up to the expectation, they tasked
themselves with protecting lives and property and did not go further.
In Nigeria, the opposite holds sway, the Nigerian Army has become a
product of our decayed society. A career in the army is now about
looking for juicy postings and ghana must go bags. Following the manner
the Nigerian Army handled the Buhari certificate saga, it is clear whose
side they are on, the side of OUR OGA AT THE TOP. The one who can
guarantee them juicy postings and jumbo retirement benefits, President
Jonathan. With a partial military, Buhari would likely loose on March
28.
4) PDP Is Poised To Win By All Means
If the
recent audio tape by Sahara reporters which purports to record how the
Ekiti elections were rigged in 2014 is anything to go by, then Buhari
has lost even before the March 28 election begins. The People’s
Democratic Party has been in power for 16 years with little to show for
it. The PDP is well known for surrounding it self with individuals who
lack credibility, from Alamieyeseigha who jumped bail in England by
dressing as a woman to James Ibori and other politicians who are see
credibility as a virtue too expensive to afford. If PDP can decorate
itself with politicians like these, then Buhari can kiss free and fair
elections goodbye.
5) Tribalism
Tribalism just like
religion is another hurdle that Gen Buhari might be unable to cross.
The contest between President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party
and Gen Buhari of the All Progressive Party has been portrayed through
the eyes of many as a contest between a Southerner and a Northerner.
Politicians have also taken advantage of this loophole to champion the
crusade that Buhari is from the northern part of the country where
majority of Nigeria’s past rulers hail from. They they feel that all
non-northerners should unite and vote President Jonathan because as a
southerner, he deserves to be in power. Sadly, this view is shared by
many Nigerians and this could make Buhari loose come March 28.
If Buhari cannot scale these hurdles then he could be inline to loose the presidential election for the third consecutive time.
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