Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025 as Agriculture, ICT and Finance Drive Expansion

Nigeria’s Economy Grows 3.98% in Q3 2025 as Agriculture, ICT and Finance Drive Expansion

Nigeria’s economic momentum picked up slightly in the third quarter of 2025 as the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.98% year-on-year, according to the latest GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The growth rate represents a mild improvement over the 3.86% recorded in the same period of 2024, signaling gradual recovery across key productive sectors.

The NBS report shows that despite persistent challenges—ranging from high operating costs to weak manufacturing output—strong performances in agriculture, ICT, and financial services helped stabilise the economy and support overall expansion.

GDP Hits ₦57.03tn in Real Terms

Nigeria’s real GDP for Q3 2025 rose to ₦57.03 trillion, up from ₦54.85 trillion in Q3 2024.
In nominal terms, output jumped by 18.12% year-on-year to ₦113.59 trillion, reflecting higher price levels, increased market activity, and improved reporting across sectors.

SECTOR-BY-SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Services Sector Leads with 53% Contribution

The services sector remained Nigeria’s largest economic pillar, contributing 53.02% to real GDP. The sector’s growth was powered by:

• Telecommunications
• Information services
• Financial institutions
• Real estate
• Trade

These industries continue to benefit from rising digital adoption, urban expansion, and stronger financial activity.

Agriculture Rebounds to 3.79% Growth

Agriculture recorded 3.79% growth, a major improvement from the 2.55% seen in Q3 2024.
Crop production—responsible for almost two-thirds of agriculture’s output—remained the main driver. The sector contributed 31.21% to real GDP, underscoring its continued importance to employment and food supply.

Better planting conditions, modest mechanisation improvements, and resilience among farmers supported the rebound.

ICT Outperforms with 5.78% Growth

The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector continued its upward trajectory:

• 5.78% real growth
• 9.10% GDP contribution, up from 8.95% in Q3 2024

Telecommunications remained the backbone of the sector, boosted by expanding broadband coverage, rising data consumption, and fintech penetration nationwide.

Oil Sector Shows Modest Growth but Remains Unstable

The oil sector posted 5.84% growth, slightly higher than the 5.66% recorded in the same quarter last year.
Key highlights:

• Oil production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day, up from 1.47mbpd in Q3 2024
• Output remained below Q2 2025’s 1.68mbpd
• Quarter-on-quarter, the sector shrank by 5.53%
• Oil contributed 3.44% to real GDP

Despite the slight improvement, instability from pipeline issues, crude theft, and price fluctuations continues to weigh on performance.

Non-Oil Sector Strengthens to 3.91% Growth

The non-oil economy grew by 3.91%, outperforming both Q2 2025 (3.64%) and Q3 2024 (3.79%).
This expansion highlights progress in Nigeria’s long-term diversification agenda.

Manufacturing Faces Slowdown

Manufacturing remained one of the weakest performers:

• 1.25% real growth, down from 1.74% in Q2 2025
• Contribution to GDP dropped to 7.62%
• Nominal growth slowed sharply to 3.45%, compared with 13.83% last year

High energy costs, FX scarcity, and rising import expenses continue to suppress industrial output.

Construction, Real Estate, Trade Maintain Moderate Growth

Construction

• Grew by 5.57%, slightly lower than last year’s 6.80%
• Contributed 3.80% to GDP

Real Estate

• Real growth: 3.50%
• Nominal growth surged by 89.34%
• Sector contributed 13.36% to GDP

Trade

• Posted 1.98% growth, up from 1.69% in Q3 2024
• Contributed 16.42% to total output

These sectors reflect continued household spending, urban expansion, and increased transaction activity.

Financial Services Surge by 19.63%

Financial and insurance services recorded one of their strongest performances in years:

• 19.63% real growth, driven by banking activities
• Nominal growth: 40.55%
• Contribution to GDP slipped to 2.65% due to structural reclassifications

The strong performance reflects higher digital banking activity, rising credit access, and improved liquidity.

Other Sectors Record Mixed Results

• Health: 2.89% (down from 3.79%)
• Education: 2.51%
• Public administration: 2.12%

While growth remained positive, quarterly contractions in some segments show lingering structural weaknesses.

IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s Growth Forecast

Earlier in October 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Nigeria’s economic outlook upwards:

• 3.9% GDP growth projected for 2025
• 4.2% projected for 2026
• 4.1% for 2024, revised up by 0.7 percentage points

According to Deniz Igan of the IMF Research Department, the upgrade reflects stronger oil production, improved investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal environment.

Conclusion: Growth Improving but Still Uneven

Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP report shows a cautiously improving economy, powered mainly by agriculture, ICT, and financial services. However, challenges in manufacturing, oil stability, and quarterly volatility persist.

Still, with diversification gaining traction and investor sentiment improving, the country remains on a path toward gradual but steady economic recovery.

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